Demand Forecasting
Integrating the Influence of Multiple
Decision Makers
In many cases, reliable forecasts require an understanding
and measurement of multiple influencer or decision maker effects
on demand. National Analysts’ experience has taught us
to tailor our forecasting approach to the appropriate decision-making
conditions. Frequently, it is necessary to identify and survey
multiple influencers or decision makers, and then integrate
their views. For example, if we are asked to estimate the
prescribing volume of a new drug therapy:
- Managed care decision makers would be asked for the formulary
status that a new prescription product would be likely to
earn in their organization (1) if the decision were entirely
up to the payor and (2) given varying levels of patient
and physician demand.
- Patients would be asked what they would do if they saw
advertisements for the new drug or if their MDs gave them
a choice of several alternatives, and how their decisions
would change as a function of what they personally would
have to pay for different drug options.
- Physicians would be asked to predict their product-prescribing
behavior not only based on changing clinical profiles, but
also in response to patient requests and/or formulary restrictions.
Then, for any particular combination of (1) a drug's clinical
profile, (2) its formulary status, and (3) the degree of patient
demand and preference, National Analysts can generate an estimate
of prescribing volume.
For more information on National Analysts, feel free to e-mail
us today or call (215) 496-6800.
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